Suwon Bluewings 0-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 25 as Suwon Bluewings welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Suwon World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 July 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Suwon Bluewings stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon Bluewings at Suwon World Cup Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Suwon Bluewings are significantly better at Suwon World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Suwon Bluewings) versus 0.60 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Suwon Bluewings, 0 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Suwon Bluewings winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Suwon Bluewings trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 41% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Suwon Bluewings 32% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 1.24 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.747 / defence 0.771 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.994 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.210. Suwon Bluewings's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gimcheon Sangmu FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Suwon Bluewings's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Suwon Bluewings's defence rating of 0.771 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Suwon Bluewings games / 22 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 43% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Suwon Bluewings 40% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 43% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Suwon Bluewings 1.24 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.747 / def 0.771 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.994 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 43% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (2 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.75) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.32
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.17
0.93
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
8%
12.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.93 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, Suwon Bluewings have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 4W 8D 10L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 5W 7D 10L from 22 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon Bluewings on 0.91 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Suwon Bluewings have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Suwon Bluewings are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 4D 6L from 11 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon Bluewings come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 0.68 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 22 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 4W 8D 10L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 7D 10L in their last 22 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Suwon Bluewings's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.45 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Suwon Bluewings
2
Draws
0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 October 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-3 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Suwon Bluewings have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 36%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 18% (Suwon Bluewings) and 54% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 36% of games; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 64% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 54% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Suwon Bluewings have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Suwon Bluewings's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 25, as Suwon Bluewings and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 0-0 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 1.24 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.93 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.75 / defence 0.77 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.25, drawn from 55/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 43% | Draw 30% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 32%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon Bluewings 0.91 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.