Seongnam FC 0-3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Seongnam FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Gimcheon Sangmu FC travel to Tancheon Sports Complex to take on Seongnam FC. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 6 April 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Seongnam FC — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Tancheon Sports Complex, Seongnam FC have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tancheon Sports Complex.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 0.90 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.824 / defence 0.997 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.636 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.143. Data: 40 Seongnam FC games / 7 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 37% | Draw 36% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.62. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.62 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Seongnam FC at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Seongnam FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 22% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 Apr 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 37% | Draw 36% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 31% | xG Seongnam FC 0.90 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.824 / def 0.997 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.636 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Seongnam FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 6 April 2022 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Seongnam FC 0 - 3 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 37% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Seongnam FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Seongnam FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Seongnam FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Seongnam FC home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Seongnam FC's attack at 0.82x the league average against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Seongnam FC Win
37%
2.72
36%
2.77
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
19.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
1.62
0.72
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
48%
Over 1.5
2.08
52%
Under 1.5
1.92
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.21
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.8 | 14.3 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.4%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 0.72 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 1.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Seongnam FC
2
Draws
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 0, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Gimcheon Sangmu FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Seongnam FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Seongnam FC 0-3 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 8, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 0.90 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.72 xG, a combined 1.62. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Seongnam FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.64 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 37% | Draw 36% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%, with Seongnam FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.