Seongnam FC 1-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Seoul at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Seongnam FC welcome FC Seoul to Tancheon Sports Complex. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 September 2021 at 08:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Seongnam FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Seongnam FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Seongnam FC at Tancheon Sports Complex this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, FC Seoul have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Seoul away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Seongnam FC at 0.90 PPG versus FC Seoul's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Seongnam FC have won 1, FC Seoul 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Seongnam FC in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
FC Seoul in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Seongnam FC 41% versus FC Seoul 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Seongnam FC 41% | FC Seoul 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Seongnam FC 0.84 xG and FC Seoul 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Seongnam FC attack 0.716 / defence 1.094 | FC Seoul attack 0.758 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 0.994 / away 1.159. Seongnam FC's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Seongnam FC games / 27 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Seongnam FC 30% | Draw 34% | FC Seoul 36%. Fair-value odds: Seongnam FC 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | FC Seoul 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.80. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.80 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Seoul at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.80 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Seongnam FC 40% | FC Seoul 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Tancheon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Seongnam FC 30% | Draw 34% | FC Seoul 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Seongnam FC 0.84 / FC Seoul 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Seongnam FC attack 0.716 / def 1.094 | FC Seoul attack 0.758 / def 1.181 | league avg home 0.994 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Seongnam FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
FC Seoul xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul?
Seongnam FC 1 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Tancheon Sports Complex.
What competition is Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Seongnam FC a 30% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Seongnam FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and FC Seoul?
Record (2 meetings): Seongnam FC 1W | Draws 1 | FC Seoul 0W.
What form are Seongnam FC and FC Seoul in?
Seongnam FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. FC Seoul (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Seongnam FC's attack rating (0.72) and FC Seoul's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Seongnam FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
30%
3.34
34%
2.98
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Seongnam FC xG
Total xG
1.80
0.96
FC Seoul xG
3.34
30%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
16%
6.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.5 | 15.9 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Seongnam FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Seongnam FC and 0.96 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 1.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Seongnam FC come into this having played 27 games, going 6W 9D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D. The sample for Seongnam FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Seoul sit at 0.93 PPG from 27 outings (6W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Seongnam FC on 1.00 PPG, FC Seoul on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Seongnam FC's home form reads 4W 3D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Seoul have taken 1.00 points per game from 13 outings (3W 4D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Seongnam FC are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 27 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Seongnam FC
Blended
FC Seoul
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Seongnam FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Seongnam FC have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 6W 7D 14L in their last 27 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Seongnam FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Seongnam FC's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Seongnam FC at home: 1.15 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Seongnam FC or FC Seoul been keeping clean sheets recently?
Seongnam FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Seoul in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Seongnam FC and FC Seoul runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2021, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Seongnam FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Seongnam FC
3
Draws
2
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Seongnam FC and FC Seoul?
From 8 meetings on record, Seongnam FC have won 3, FC Seoul have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Seongnam FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when FC Seoul 0-1 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Seongnam FC and FC Seoul?
Seongnam FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Seongnam FC see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
FC Seoul see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Seongnam FC 38%, FC Seoul 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Seongnam FC and 31% for FC Seoul.
On the defensive side: Seongnam FC keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Seongnam FC have failed to score in 38% of games; FC Seoul in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Seongnam FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Seongnam FC play FC Seoul?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Seongnam FC's recent matches and 54% of FC Seoul's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Seongnam FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Seongnam FC's recent games and 31% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Seongnam FC and FC Seoul share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Seongnam FC and FC Seoul finished level at 1-1 at Tancheon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Seongnam FC 0.84 xG and FC Seoul 0.96 xG, a combined 1.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Seongnam FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.09 against FC Seoul attack 0.76 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Seongnam FC 30% | Draw 34% | FC Seoul 36%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Seongnam FC 41%, FC Seoul 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Seongnam FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Seoul's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Seongnam FC 1.00 PPG, FC Seoul 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.