Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2W 2D 6L at Gimcheon Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ulsan Hyundai FC — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.88 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.745 / defence 1.008 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.033 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.247. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 59 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.17. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.88 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.745 / def 1.008 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.033 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 25% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.1%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
25%
4.05
29%
3.40
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.17
1.30
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
7%
14.82
19%
5.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.8 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.30 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 8D 12L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 16W 7D 3L from 26 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 7W 3D 2L from 12 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.58 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 62%.
Last 26 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 16W 7D 3L in their last 26 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 33% for Ulsan Hyundai FC.
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 33% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.88 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.30 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.74 / defence 1.01 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.82, drawn from 26/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 42%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.