Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Gimcheon Sangmu FC welcome Incheon United to Gimcheon Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 July 2022 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record at Gimcheon Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Gimcheon Sangmu FC are significantly better at Gimcheon Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Incheon United — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) versus 1.10 (Incheon United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, 1 for Incheon United and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Incheon United winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Incheon United trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57% versus Incheon United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% | Incheon United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG and Incheon United 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.978 / defence 0.991 | Incheon United attack 0.994 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.168. Data: 21 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 54 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 32%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Incheon United 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Incheon United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 / Incheon United 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.978 / def 0.991 | Incheon United attack 0.994 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Incheon United xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 10:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 1 Incheon United.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 39% chance of winning, Incheon United a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Record (1 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0W | Draws 0 | Incheon United 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Incheon United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Incheon United's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Incheon United's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.50
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.46
1.15
Incheon United xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.15 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gimcheon Sangmu FC come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 7D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.43 PPG from 21 outings (7W 9D 5L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.05 PPG, Incheon United on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home form reads 4W 3D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Gimcheon Sangmu FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Incheon United have taken 1.40 points per game from 10 outings (3W 5D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.19 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 21 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
Incheon United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 7D 9L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 7W 9D 5L in their last 21 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Incheon United away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Incheon United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 May 2026, when Incheon United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Incheon United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
From 8 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Incheon United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%, Incheon United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 50% (Incheon United).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Incheon United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 60% of Incheon United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 50% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Incheon United defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.30 xG and Incheon United 1.15 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Incheon United attack 0.99 / defence 1.00, drawn from 21/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 39% | Draw 29% | Incheon United 32%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Incheon United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43%, Incheon United 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Incheon United's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.05 PPG, Incheon United 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Incheon United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.