Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Anyang make the trip to Gimcheon Stadium to face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 June 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Gimcheon Stadium this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Gimcheon Stadium.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 3–1 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.15 xG and FC Anyang 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.872 / defence 0.743 | FC Anyang attack 1.004 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.179. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating of 0.743 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 19 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41% | Draw 33% | FC Anyang 27%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | FC Anyang 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jun 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41% | Draw 33% | FC Anyang 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.15 / FC Anyang 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.872 / def 0.743 | FC Anyang attack 1.004 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
FC Anyang xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 22 June 2025 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 0 FC Anyang.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 41% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 27% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang?
Record (1 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1W | Draws 0 | FC Anyang 0W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | CS 6.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against FC Anyang's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (1.00x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 52/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
41%
2.46
33%
3.06
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.03
0.88
FC Anyang xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
8%
11.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0.88 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Pre-Season
FC Anyang
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Anyang won 4-1 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang?
From 5 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, FC Anyang have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when FC Anyang 2-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gimcheon Sangmu FC edge out FC Anyang 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat FC Anyang 1-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.15 xG and FC Anyang 0.88 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Anyang landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.74 against FC Anyang attack 1.00 / defence 1.15, drawn from 52/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 41% | Draw 33% | FC Anyang 27%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.