Pohang Steelers 1-0 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Steelyard Stadium plays host to Pohang Steelers versus Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Tuesday 20 April 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.22 xG and Suwon City FC 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.764 / defence 1.420 | Suwon City FC attack 0.679 / defence 1.628. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 1.008. Pohang Steelers's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.628 — this is suppressing Pohang Steelers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Pohang Steelers games / 10 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Suwon City FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 20 Apr 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.22 / Suwon City FC 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.764 / def 1.420 | Suwon City FC attack 0.679 / def 1.628 | league avg home 0.977 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Suwon City FC xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 20 April 2021 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 0 Suwon City FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 42% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 0.76x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.63x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.68x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.44
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.19
0.97
Suwon City FC xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
9%
11.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.97 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 July 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 1-5 on 22 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 3D 1L from 7 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
4
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 July 2025, when Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Suwon City FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Suwon City FC 1-0 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.22 xG and Suwon City FC 0.97 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.76 / defence 1.42 against Suwon City FC attack 0.68 / defence 1.63, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 42% | Draw 29% | Suwon City FC 29%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.