Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ulsan Hyundai FC (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jeonbuk Motors face Ulsan Hyundai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Ulsan Hyundai FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 July 2024, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 K League 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeonbuk Motors's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ulsan Hyundai FC are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Ulsan Hyundai FC, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Jeonbuk Motors.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2024, ended 0–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
It is worth noting that Ulsan Hyundai FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 51% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.48 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.015 / defence 1.395 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.082 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.149. Data: 56 Jeonbuk Motors games / 56 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 33% | Draw 23% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 90% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 33% | Draw 23% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.48 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.015 / def 1.395 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.082 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 33% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 0W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.01) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
33%
3.03
23%
4.32
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
3.22
1.73
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.03
33%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
18%
5.66
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
6%
17.14
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.3 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.73 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 17D 24L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-L. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.93 PPG from 61 outings (35W 13D 13L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 12W 10D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.60 points per game from 30 outings (14W 6D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.69 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 61 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 20W 17D 24L in their last 61 games (1.26 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 35W 13D 13L in their last 61 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.53 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 67%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 53% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 57% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.48 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.73 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.01 / defence 1.40 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.98, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 33% | Draw 23% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 44%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Jeonbuk Motors win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 44%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Jeonbuk Motors winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.