Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeonju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeonbuk Motors versus Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 20 March 2021 at 07:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 2.08 xG and Suwon City FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.321 / defence 1.191 | Suwon City FC attack 0.724 / defence 1.670. League average goals — home 0.943 / away 1.011. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.321 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Suwon City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.670 — this is suppressing Jeonbuk Motors's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Jeonbuk Motors games / 5 Suwon City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 62% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 12%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon City FC 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Jeonbuk Motors (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 62% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 54% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 2.08 / Suwon City FC 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.321 / def 1.191 | Suwon City FC attack 0.724 / def 1.670 | league avg home 0.943 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Suwon City FC xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 20 March 2021 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 62% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.32x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 1.67x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (0.72x) against Jeonbuk Motors's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
62%
1.60
26%
3.91
12%
8.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.95
0.87
Suwon City FC xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
8.37
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
12%
8.00
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
1%
66.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.87 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Suwon City FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
Suwon City FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jeonbuk Motors won 0-6 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors and Suwon City FC finished level at 1-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 2.08 xG and Suwon City FC 0.87 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.32 / defence 1.19 against Suwon City FC attack 0.72 / defence 1.67, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 62% | Draw 26% | Suwon City FC 12%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 62%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.