Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Seongnam FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 April 2021, 08:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 xG and Seongnam FC 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.416 / defence 1.103 | Seongnam FC attack 0.657 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.004 / away 1.024. Jeonbuk Motors carry an above-average attack strength of 1.416 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 9 Jeonbuk Motors games / 9 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 48% | Draw 32% | Seongnam FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Seongnam FC 5.00. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 48% | Draw 32% | Seongnam FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 / Seongnam FC 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.416 / def 1.103 | Seongnam FC attack 0.657 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.004 / away 1.024 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Seongnam FC xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 08:30 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 0 Seongnam FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 48% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.42) and Seongnam FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
48%
2.09
32%
3.15
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.01
0.74
Seongnam FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
6%
17.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 12.6 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.74 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Pre-Season
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jun 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
0
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, Seongnam FC have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2022, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Seongnam FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Seongnam FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Seongnam FC 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 xG and Seongnam FC 0.74 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.42 / defence 1.10 against Seongnam FC attack 0.66 / defence 0.89, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 48% | Draw 32% | Seongnam FC 20%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.