Jeju United FC 2-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 June 2024 at 10:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Ulsan Hyundai FC arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jeju United FC, 2 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Jeju United FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 57% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 54% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.09 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.805 / defence 1.049 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.971 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.144. Data: 50 Jeju United FC games / 50 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 40% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jun 2024, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Jeju United FC 1.09 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.805 / def 1.049 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.971 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeju United FC 2 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 34% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (2 meetings): Jeju United FC 0W | Draws 0 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jeju United FC's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.97x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
34%
2.97
29%
3.48
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.25
1.17
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
10%
9.54
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.17 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 24W 21D 31L record — W-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 45W 17D 14L from 76 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jeju United FC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.16 PPG from 38 outings (10W 14D 14L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 20W 9D 9L from 38 away games — 1.82 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.58 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 games (1.22 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.16 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.82 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
0
Draws
8
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Jeju United FC) and 47% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Jeju United FC 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Jeju United FC 2-3 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.09 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.05 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 34% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 38%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 54%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.