Jeju United FC 2-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon Bluewings at 44%, yet in-form Jeju United FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jeju World Cup Stadium plays host to Jeju United FC versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jeju United FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jeju World Cup Stadium this season.
Suwon Bluewings's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Jeju United FC's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Jeju United FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 65% versus Suwon Bluewings 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 53% | Suwon Bluewings 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.06 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.068 / defence 1.306 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.828 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 0.938 / away 1.264. Data: 33 Jeju United FC games / 33 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 44%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Suwon Bluewings 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon Bluewings are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeju United FC (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon Bluewings if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Jeju United FC 80% | Suwon Bluewings 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Jeju United FC 1.06 / Suwon Bluewings 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.068 / def 1.306 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.828 / def 1.056 | league avg home 0.938 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Suwon Bluewings (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Suwon Bluewings xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 05:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Jeju United FC 2 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 29% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 44% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Suwon Bluewings the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.83x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon Bluewings Win
29%
3.44
27%
3.69
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.43
1.37
Suwon Bluewings xG
3.44
29%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
7%
13.52
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.37 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 10W 16D 8L from 34 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Suwon Bluewings, meanwhile, have gone 12W 9D 13L across 34 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.32 for Suwon Bluewings. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 5W 6D 5L from 16 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon Bluewings's away record stands at 7W 4D 5L across 16 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.21 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jeju United FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Suwon Bluewings in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 10W 16D 8L in their last 34 games (1.35 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 12W 9D 13L in their last 34 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Suwon Bluewings's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.31 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Jeju United FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 7, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Jeju United FC 2-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 81%, Suwon Bluewings 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Jeju United FC) and 44% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Suwon Bluewings in 50%; Suwon Bluewings in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Suwon Bluewings?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Jeju United FC's games and 31% of Suwon Bluewings's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 44% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeju United FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Suwon Bluewings 2-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Championship Round - 2, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.06 xG and Suwon Bluewings 1.37 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Suwon Bluewings landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.31 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 29% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 44%, with Suwon Bluewings to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 53%, Suwon Bluewings 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.35 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.