Jeju United FC 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Jeju United FC welcome Gimcheon Sangmu FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at Jeju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 1.40 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jeju United FC, 3 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Gimcheon Sangmu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 43% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 43% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.43 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.913 / defence 0.960 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.853 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.177. Data: 61 Jeju United FC games / 28 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.00. Jeju United FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Jeju United FC 1.43 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.913 / def 0.960 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.853 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 48% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Record (4 meetings): Jeju United FC 1W | Draws 0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.91) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.73
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.39
0.96
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
6%
16.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 0.96 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Jeju United FC have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 10W 2D 16L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form line: 13W 8D 7L from 28 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jeju United FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jeju United FC have posted 1.71 PPG from 14 outings (8W 0D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Jeju United FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 5D 4L from 14 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jeju United FC are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 10W 2D 16L in their last 28 games (1.14 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 13W 8D 7L in their last 28 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.71 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Jeju United FC or Gimcheon Sangmu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeju United FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Jul 2022, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gimcheon Sangmu FC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
5
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 43%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Jeju United FC) and 43% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 36%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 43% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeju United FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 43% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Jeju United FC edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.43 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.96 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gimcheon Sangmu FC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 48% | Draw 27% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 43%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Jeju United FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.