Jeju United FC 1-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Championship Round - 1 as Jeju United FC welcome Gangwon FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 October 2022 at 06:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeju United FC at Jeju World Cup Stadium this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gangwon FC are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeju United FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Gangwon FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 58% versus Gangwon FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 54% | Gangwon FC 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.51 xG and Gangwon FC 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.058 / defence 1.066 | Gangwon FC attack 1.184 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.240. Data: 66 Jeju United FC games / 66 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 24% | Gangwon FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Gangwon FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jeju United FC 70% | Gangwon FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 24% | Gangwon FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Jeju United FC 1.51 / Gangwon FC 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 1.058 / def 1.066 | Gangwon FC attack 1.184 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Gangwon FC xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 06:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 37% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (1.06) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
37%
2.71
24%
4.18
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
3.08
1.57
Gangwon FC xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
21%
4.79
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
8%
12.96
9%
11.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.9 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.57 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC come into this having played 71 games, going 24W 26D 21L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.28 PPG from 71 outings (24W 19D 28L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.38 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeju United FC's home form reads 12W 13D 10L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 0.94 points per game from 35 outings (8W 9D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeju United FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.27 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 71 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 24W 26D 21L in their last 71 games (1.38 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 24W 19D 28L in their last 71 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.40 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Jeju United FC
7
Draws
3
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 0, Gangwon FC have won 3, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 63%, Gangwon FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jeju United FC) and 51% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Gangwon FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jeju United FC's games and 54% of Gangwon FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 51% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Jeju United FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Championship Round - 1, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.51 xG and Gangwon FC 1.57 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.07 against Gangwon FC attack 1.18 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 37% | Draw 24% | Gangwon FC 39%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 54%, Gangwon FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.38 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.