Jeju United FC 1-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Daegu FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jeju United FC and Daegu FC meet at Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 May 2024 at 06:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jeju United FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jeju United FC's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Jeju World Cup Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
Daegu FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Daegu FC are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Jeju United FC, 2 for Daegu FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Daegu FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Jeju United FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Daegu FC — key trading statistics (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 57% versus Daegu FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 54% | Daegu FC 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.42 xG and Daegu FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.869 / defence 1.194 | Daegu FC attack 1.008 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.208. Data: 43 Jeju United FC games / 43 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 36% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Daegu FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 40% | Daegu FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 May 2024, 06:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 36% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Jeju United FC 1.42 / Daegu FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.869 / def 1.194 | Daegu FC attack 1.008 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Daegu FC xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 06:00 on Monday 6 May 2024 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 36% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Jeju United FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
Record (2 meetings): Jeju United FC 0W | Draws 0 | Daegu FC 2W.
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (1.01x) against Jeju United FC's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.69
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.88
1.45
Daegu FC xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
8%
11.97
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.45 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 24W 21D 31L from 76 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 23W 30D 23L across 76 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Jeju United FC against 1.30 for Daegu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 10W 14D 14L from 38 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 8W 15D 15L across 38 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.24 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 games (1.22 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 23W 30D 23L in their last 76 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.16 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 23 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daegu FC won 0-4 on 14 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jeju United FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Daegu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jeju United FC
3
Draws
5
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2025, when Jeju United FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Daegu FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 55%, Daegu FC 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Jeju United FC) and 47% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 32% of games; Daegu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Jeju United FC's games and 63% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 47% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat Daegu FC 1-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.42 xG and Daegu FC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.19 against Daegu FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 36% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 37%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Jeju United FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 54%, Daegu FC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.22 PPG, Daegu FC 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.