Incheon United 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to Sungui Arena Park to face Incheon United in K League 1, Championship Round - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 24 November 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form
Incheon United (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Ulsan Hyundai FC have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Incheon United against 1.60 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Incheon United, 2 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 49% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 36% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.22 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 1.034 / defence 0.926 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.055 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Data: 66 Incheon United games / 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 38% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Incheon United are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Incheon United 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 38% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Incheon United 1.22 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 1.034 / def 0.926 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.055 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:30 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Incheon United 3 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 38% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Incheon United 1W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2W.
What form are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Incheon United (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Incheon United's attack rating (1.03) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (1.05x) against Incheon United's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.41
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.33
1.10
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
10%
10.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.10 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, Incheon United have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 26W 29D 19L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 44W 17D 13L from 74 games, 2.01 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Incheon United.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Incheon United have posted 1.46 PPG from 37 outings (13W 15D 9L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 20W 9D 8L from 37 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Incheon United are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.59 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Last 74 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 26W 29D 19L in their last 74 games (1.45 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 17D 13L in their last 74 (2.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.46 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 21 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 0-3 on 1 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-2 Incheon United.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 46%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Incheon United) and 46% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%; Incheon United have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Incheon United's recent matches and 51% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Incheon United's recent games and 46% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Incheon United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Championship Round - 4, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.22 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Incheon United beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 38% | Draw 29% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 32%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 36%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 2.01 PPG against 1.45. Form was overturned, with Incheon United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.