Gwangju FC 4-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gwangju Football Stadium plays host to Gwangju FC versus Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 11 October 2026 at 05:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gwangju FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 0W 5D 5L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Gwangju Football Stadium, Gwangju FC have gone 0W 3D 7L this season (10 games, 0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ulsan Hyundai FC arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gwangju FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Gwangju FC 3W, Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jul 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gwangju FC — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 44% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 43% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 0.90 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.769 / defence 1.312 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.928 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 1.268. Gwangju FC's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Gwangju FC games / 63 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 19% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 5.26 | Draw 3.23 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.00. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Gwangju FC 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 19% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Gwangju FC 0.90 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.769 / def 1.312 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.928 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.212 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gwangju FC 4 - 3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 19% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (9 meetings): Gwangju FC 3W | Draws 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4W.
What form are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gwangju FC (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 0.77x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.93x) against Gwangju FC's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
19%
5.14
31%
3.27
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.44
1.54
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
5.14
19%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
4%
24.08
20%
4.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.54 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gwangju FC come into this having played 68 games, going 16W 21D 31L for 1.01 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.34 PPG from 68 outings (25W 16D 27L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.01 PPG for Gwangju FC against 1.34 for Ulsan Hyundai FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gwangju FC's home form reads 9W 8D 17L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.18 points per game from 34 outings (10W 10D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gwangju FC are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.28 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 68 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 16W 21D 31L in their last 68 games (1.01 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 25W 16D 27L in their last 68 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.03 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ulsan Hyundai FC won 5-1 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gwangju FC have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gwangju FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Gwangju FC 4-3 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Gwangju FC) and 41% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC have failed to score in 32% of games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gwangju FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 59% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gwangju FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 41% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Gwangju FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 4-3 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 0.90 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Gwangju FC beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.31 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 19% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Gwangju FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 43%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.01 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.