FC Anyang 2-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Anyang and Gangwon FC meet at Anyang Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
FC Anyang (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Anyang at Anyang Stadium this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Anyang Stadium this season.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gangwon FC have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FC Anyang 2W, Gangwon FC 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Anyang — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Anyang 65% versus Gangwon FC 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Anyang 49% | Gangwon FC 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Anyang 0.80 xG and Gangwon FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Anyang attack 0.984 / defence 1.131 | Gangwon FC attack 0.900 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.253. Gangwon FC's defence strength of 0.736 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 FC Anyang games / 52 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Anyang 20% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 45%. Fair-value odds: FC Anyang 5.00 | Draw 2.86 | Gangwon FC 2.22. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gangwon FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC Anyang 70% | Gangwon FC 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Anyang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Anyang 20% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG FC Anyang 0.80 / Gangwon FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: FC Anyang attack 0.984 / def 1.131 | Gangwon FC attack 0.900 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
FC Anyang xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Gangwon FC xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC kick off?
FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Anyang Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC?
FC Anyang 2 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Anyang Stadium.
What competition is FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC part of?
FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Anyang a 20% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 45% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both FC Anyang and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gangwon FC?
Record (4 meetings): FC Anyang 2W | Draws 2 | Gangwon FC 0W.
What form are FC Anyang and Gangwon FC in?
FC Anyang (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Gangwon FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Anyang's attack at 0.98x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.80 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.90x) against FC Anyang's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.4%), 0-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
20%
4.90
35%
2.89
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
FC Anyang xG
Total xG
2.07
1.27
Gangwon FC xG
4.90
20%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
6%
17.54
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 16.1 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC Anyang and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for FC Anyang and 1.27 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Anyang's recent record stands at 20W 16D 21L from 57 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gangwon FC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 21D 15L across 57 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for FC Anyang against 1.47 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Anyang have managed 9W 9D 10L from 28 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gangwon FC's away record stands at 11W 8D 9L across 28 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Anyang are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.07 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gangwon FC in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Anyang
Blended
Gangwon FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Anyang and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
FC Anyang have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 21W 21D 15L in their last 57 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Anyang at home or Gangwon FC away?
Gangwon FC's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Anyang at home: 1.29 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.46 PPG.
Have FC Anyang or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Anyang have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since April 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Anyang have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
FC Anyang
2
Draws
0
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Anyang and Gangwon FC?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Anyang have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Anyang and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FC Anyang 2-1 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Anyang and Gangwon FC?
FC Anyang have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Anyang 64%, Gangwon FC 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Anyang) and 32% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC in 43%; FC Anyang have failed to score in 29% of games; Gangwon FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Anyang home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Anyang play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of FC Anyang's recent matches and 36% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Anyang vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC Anyang's recent games and 32% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Anyang and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
FC Anyang have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Gangwon FC 2-1 at Anyang Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Anyang 0.80 xG and Gangwon FC 1.27 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC Anyang beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Anyang attack 0.98 / defence 1.13 against Gangwon FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.74, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Anyang 20% | Draw 35% | Gangwon FC 45%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a FC Anyang win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Anyang 49%, Gangwon FC 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Anyang's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Anyang 1.33 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.