Daegu FC 1-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gwangju FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Gwangju FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 1 June 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Daegu FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Daegu FC's home record at DGB Daegu Bank Park: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gwangju FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gwangju FC have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Daegu FC, 1.00 for Gwangju FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Daegu FC 2W, Gwangju FC 2W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Gwangju FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Daegu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gwangju FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 53% versus Gwangju FC 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 45% | Gwangju FC 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.14 xG and Gwangju FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.996 / defence 1.271 | Gwangju FC attack 0.844 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.172. Data: 49 Daegu FC games / 49 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Gwangju FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Daegu FC 70% | Gwangju FC 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 33% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Daegu FC 1.14 / Gwangju FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.996 / def 1.271 | Gwangju FC attack 0.844 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Gwangju FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC 1 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 33% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Daegu FC and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
Record (7 meetings): Daegu FC 2W | Draws 3 | Gwangju FC 2W.
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Gwangju FC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Gwangju FC's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Gwangju FC's attack (0.84x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
33%
3.01
28%
3.62
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.26
Gwangju FC xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
9%
10.59
13%
7.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.26 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 76 outings, Daegu FC have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 23W 26D 27L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Gwangju FC's form line: 30W 16D 30L from 76 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.39 for Gwangju FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Daegu FC have posted 1.41 PPG from 37 outings (12W 16D 9L).
On the road, Gwangju FC have gone 12W 9D 16L from 37 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.17 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 23W 26D 27L in their last 76 games (1.25 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 30W 16D 30L in their last 76 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Gwangju FC away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.41 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Daegu FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gwangju FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Daegu FC
4
Draws
2
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 4, Gwangju FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Daegu FC 1-0 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Gwangju FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 57%, Gwangju FC 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Daegu FC) and 32% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Gwangju FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Gwangju FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 49% of Gwangju FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Daegu FC's recent games and 32% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Daegu FC and Gwangju FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Regular Season - 17, as Daegu FC and Gwangju FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.14 xG and Gwangju FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.27 against Gwangju FC attack 0.84 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 33% | Draw 28% | Gwangju FC 39%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 45%, Gwangju FC 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.25 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.