Damac 2-2 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 44%, yet in-form Al Taawon provide a compelling counter-argument — this Damac vs Al Taawon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Damac and Al Taawon meet at Dhamak Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:20 UTC.
Current Form
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Damac have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Damac at Dhamak Club Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al Taawon have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Taawon's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Al Taawon are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Al Taawon, who have claimed 3 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Taawon winning.
It is worth noting that Al Taawon have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al Taawon — key trading statistics (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 55% versus Al Taawon 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 45% | Al Taawon 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.21 xG and Al Taawon 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.960 / defence 0.832 | Al Taawon attack 0.841 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.259. Data: 40 Damac games / 40 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 44% | Draw 30% | Al Taawon 27%. Fair-value odds: Damac 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Al Taawon 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Damac are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Taawon (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Damac if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Damac 30% | Al Taawon 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 44% | Draw 30% | Al Taawon 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Damac 1.21 / Al Taawon 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.960 / def 0.832 | Al Taawon attack 0.841 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Damac (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Al Taawon xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Taawon kick off?
Damac vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:20 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Damac 2 - 2 Al Taawon.
Where is Damac vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Taawon part of?
Damac vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 44% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Damac and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taawon?
Record (6 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 3 | Al Taawon 3W.
What form are Damac and Al Taawon in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Al Taawon (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Damac vs Al Taawon?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Damac's attack at 0.96x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (0.84x) against Damac's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.39
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Damac xG
Total xG
2.09
0.88
Al Taawon xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
8%
12.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.2 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Damac and 0.88 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Taawon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Damac have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 12W 11D 17L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Damac, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon's form line: 19W 12D 9L from 40 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Damac.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 7W 8D 4L from 19 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Damac are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.45 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 12W 11D 17L in their last 40 games (1.18 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 19W 12D 9L in their last 40 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Taawon away?
Damac's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.53 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Damac or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Damac have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 6-1 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Damac
4
Draws
5
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taawon?
From 10 meetings on record, Damac have won 1, Al Taawon have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Damac 2-1 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Al Taawon see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 47%, Al Taawon 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for Damac and 32% for Al Taawon.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 37%; Damac have failed to score in 32% of games; Al Taawon in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Taawon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Damac's recent matches and 53% of Al Taawon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Damac's recent games and 32% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Damac and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Damac and Al Taawon drew 2-2 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.21 xG and Al Taawon 0.88 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Taawon outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.96 / defence 0.83 against Al Taawon attack 0.84 / defence 0.86, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 44% | Draw 30% | Al Taawon 27%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 45%, Al Taawon 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Damac (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.