Damac 1-2 Al Orubah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Damac at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Damac vs Al Orubah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Al Orubah travel to Dhamak Club Stadium to take on Damac. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 February 2025, 15:50 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dhamak Club Stadium, Damac have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Damac are significantly better at Dhamak Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Orubah — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Al Orubah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Damac 1.00 PPG, Al Orubah 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Damac, 1 for Al Orubah and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Orubah winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Damac trading profile (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Al Orubah trading profile (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 62% versus Al Orubah 24%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 62% | Al Orubah 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 1.80 xG and Al Orubah 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 0.951 / defence 1.098 | Al Orubah attack 0.582 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.381. Al Orubah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Damac's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Damac games / 21 Al Orubah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 59% | Draw 23% | Al Orubah 18%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Al Orubah 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Damac (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Damac 70% | Al Orubah 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Orubah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 Feb 2025, 15:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 59% | Draw 23% | Al Orubah 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 49% | xG Damac 1.80 / Al Orubah 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 0.951 / def 1.098 | Al Orubah attack 0.582 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.381 • Poisson stance: Damac (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Al Orubah xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Orubah kick off?
Damac vs Al Orubah kicked off at 15:50 on Monday 24 February 2025 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Orubah?
Damac 1 - 2 Al Orubah.
Where is Damac vs Al Orubah being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Orubah part of?
Damac vs Al Orubah is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Orubah?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 59% chance of winning, Al Orubah a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Orubah?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Damac and Al Orubah will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Orubah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Orubah?
Record (1 meetings): Damac 0W | Draws 0 | Al Orubah 1W.
What form are Damac and Al Orubah in?
Damac (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Al Orubah (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Damac's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Al Orubah's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, Al Orubah's attack versus Damac's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.38
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Damac xG
Total xG
2.69
0.88
Al Orubah xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
3%
33.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Orubah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Orubah expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Damac and 0.88 for Al Orubah, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Orubah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 21 outings, Damac have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 6W 6D 9L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Orubah's form line: 6W 2D 13L from 21 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Al Orubah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Damac on 1.14 PPG, Al Orubah on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.45 PPG from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
On the road, Al Orubah have gone 2W 2D 7L from 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Damac are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Al Orubah are on 0.81 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Damac have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Al Orubah in 24%.
Last 21 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Orubah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Orubah in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 6W 6D 9L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Al Orubah have gone 6W 2D 13L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Orubah away?
Damac's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.45 PPG; Al Orubah away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Damac and Al Orubah runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Damac
0
Draws
2
Al Orubah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Orubah?
From 2 meetings on record, Damac have won 0, Al Orubah have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Orubah last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when Damac 1-2 Al Orubah.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Orubah?
Al Orubah have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Al Orubah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 64%, Al Orubah 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Damac and 64% for Al Orubah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Damac have failed to score in 27% of games; Al Orubah in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Orubah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Orubah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Damac's recent matches and 36% of Al Orubah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Damac vs Al Orubah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Damac's matches and 64% of Al Orubah's.
Do Damac and Al Orubah tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Al Orubah in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Orubah defy the odds to beat Damac 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Orubah beat Damac 1-2 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 1.80 xG and Al Orubah 0.88 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Damac fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Al Orubah outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Al Orubah attack 0.58 / defence 1.26, drawn from 55/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 59% | Draw 23% | Al Orubah 18%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al Orubah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 62%, Al Orubah 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Al Orubah's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.14 PPG, Al Orubah 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Orubah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Orubah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.