Al Wehda Club 0-3 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Al-Ittihad FC travel to King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium to take on Al Wehda Club. The game is scheduled for Monday 28 August 2023, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Wehda Club have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Wehda Club have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Wehda Club have posted 1W 3D 6L at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Al-Ittihad FC are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Wehda Club, 2 for Al-Ittihad FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Al Wehda Club in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 42% versus Al-Ittihad FC 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 39% | Al-Ittihad FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 0.97 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 1.111 / defence 1.031 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.433 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.442. Al-Ittihad FC's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.433 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Al Wehda Club games / 33 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 16% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 64%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 6.25 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ittihad FC 1.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ittihad FC (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.10 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Wehda Club 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 28 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 16% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 55% | xG Al Wehda Club 0.97 / Al-Ittihad FC 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: Al Wehda Club attack 1.111 / def 1.031 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.433 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Al Wehda Club xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Al-Ittihad FC xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 28 August 2023 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Wehda Club 0 - 3 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Wehda Club a 16% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 64% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Wehda Club 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 2W.
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Wehda Club (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al Wehda Club's attack rating (1.11) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al Wehda Club's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
16%
6.24
20%
4.96
64%
1.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Al Wehda Club xG
Total xG
3.10
2.13
Al-Ittihad FC xG
6.24
16%
Home win
4.96
20%
Draw
1.57
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
12%
8.42
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
2%
52.58
24%
4.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 9.6 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Al Wehda Club and 2.13 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Al Wehda Club have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 10W 8D 15L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al Wehda Club, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ittihad FC's form line: 25W 6D 2L from 33 games, 2.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Al-Ittihad FC are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Wehda Club.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Wehda Club have posted 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (5W 5D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 11W 4D 1L from 16 away games — 2.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Wehda Club are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.09 scored and 0.39 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Wehda Club
Early Season
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Wehda Club have gone 10W 8D 15L in their last 33 games (1.15 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 25W 6D 2L in their last 33 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Wehda Club at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Wehda Club at home: 1.25 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Al Wehda Club or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Wehda Club have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Ittihad FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Sep 2024, when Al-Ittihad FC won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Wehda Club's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Wehda Club
0
Draws
6
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Wehda Club have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Al Wehda Club 1-4 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Wehda Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Wehda Club 50%, Al-Ittihad FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Wehda Club) and 69% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 50%; Al Wehda Club have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Wehda Club home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Wehda Club play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al Wehda Club's recent matches and 50% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Wehda Club vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Al Wehda Club's matches and 69% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Wehda Club and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Wehda Club have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Ittihad FC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al Wehda Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al Wehda Club 0-3 at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Wehda Club 0.97 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 2.13 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al Wehda Club fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Al-Ittihad FC outscored their 2.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Wehda Club attack 1.11 / defence 1.03 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.43 / defence 0.73, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Wehda Club 16% | Draw 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 64%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Wehda Club 39%, Al-Ittihad FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Wehda Club's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Wehda Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.