Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq meet at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Monday 28 August 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 6W 3D 1L at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 4 previous meetings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2023, ended 3–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The historical record gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Al-Hilal Saudi FC half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 46% versus Al-Ettifaq 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Al-Ettifaq 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.28 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.158 / defence 0.925 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.932 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.442. Data: 33 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 33 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 37% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ettifaq 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% | Al-Ettifaq 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 28 Aug 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 37% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.28 / Al-Ettifaq 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.158 / def 0.925 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.932 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.442 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Al-Ettifaq xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 28 August 2023 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2 - 0 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 37% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.93x) against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
37%
2.69
27%
3.67
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.24
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
11%
9.33
10%
10.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.24 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent record stands at 19W 9D 5L from 33 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 13L across 33 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have managed 9W 5D 2L from 16 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 4W 4D 8L across 16 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.00 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 19W 9D 5L in their last 33 games (2.00 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-5 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2
Draws
0
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Ettifaq have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-0 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62%, Al-Ettifaq 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 38% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 31%; Al-Ettifaq in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 31% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 38% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Ettifaq.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ettifaq 2-0 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.28 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.24 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.93 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 37% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 36%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54%, Al-Ettifaq 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.