Al Taawon 2-2 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Taawoun Club Stadium plays host to Al Taawon versus Al Shabab in Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:05 UTC.
Current Form
Al Taawon's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Al Taawon have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
Al Shabab have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Al Taawon, 2 for Al Shabab and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Al Shabab winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 46% versus Al Shabab 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 37% | Al Shabab 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.25 xG and Al Shabab 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.820 / defence 0.892 | Al Shabab attack 0.951 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.364. Data: 54 Al Taawon games / 54 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 38% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Al Shabab 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Taawon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 50% | Al Shabab 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al Taawoun Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 14:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 38% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Taawon 1.25 / Al Shabab 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.820 / def 0.892 | Al Shabab attack 0.951 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al Shabab xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Shabab kicked off at 14:05 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Shabab?
Al Taawon 2 - 2 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 38% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Shabab?
Record (7 meetings): Al Taawon 3W | Draws 2 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Shabab in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.82x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.95x) against Al Taawon's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.62
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.41
1.16
Al Shabab xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
12%
8.30
10%
10.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al Taawon and 1.16 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Taawon come into this having played 54 games, going 23W 17D 14L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.41 PPG from 54 outings (22W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Al Taawon against 1.41 for Al Shabab. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Al Taawon's home form reads 12W 7D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (8W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Taawon are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.44 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 23W 17D 14L in their last 54 games (1.59 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 22W 10D 22L in their last 54 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.65 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al Taawon go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Taawon won 1-5 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Taawon have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al Taawon
3
Draws
2
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 5, Al Shabab have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Al Shabab 1-5 Al Taawon.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Shabab?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 54%, Al Shabab 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Al Taawon) and 42% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Al Shabab in 38%; Al Shabab in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 38% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Al Taawon's recent games and 42% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon and Al Shabab finished level at 2-2 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.25 xG and Al Shabab 1.16 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.82 / defence 0.89 against Al Shabab attack 0.95 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 38% | Draw 28% | Al Shabab 34%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 37%, Al Shabab 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.59 PPG, Al Shabab 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.