Al-Nassr 2-3 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Al-Nassr welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al-Awwal Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 6W 3D 1L at Al-Awwal Park — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Al-Nassr have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Nassr register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ettifaq in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Al-Nassr, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with Al-Nassr winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 68% versus Al-Ettifaq 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 76% | Al-Ettifaq 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.49 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.278 / defence 0.772 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.115 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.361. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Al-Nassr games / 54 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 30%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ettifaq 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Nassr 60% | Al-Ettifaq 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Al-Awwal Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Nassr 1.49 / Al-Ettifaq 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.278 / def 0.772 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.115 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al-Ettifaq xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Al-Awwal Park.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr 2 - 3 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Awwal Park.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 44% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Nassr 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.28x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.89
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.66
1.17
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
7%
14.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.17 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Nassr's recent record stands at 39W 9D 6L from 54 games, a 2.33 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 19W 16D 19L across 54 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Ettifaq heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Nassr have managed 18W 6D 3L from 27 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 11W 9D 7L across 27 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.65 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.26 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 39W 9D 6L in their last 54 games (2.33 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 19W 16D 19L in their last 54 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.22 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 25 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2024, when Al-Nassr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
3
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 2-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 74% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 67%, Al-Ettifaq 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Al-Nassr) and 37% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 41%; Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 41% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 70% of Al-Nassr's recent games and 37% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Nassr 2-3 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.49 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.17 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.28 / defence 0.77 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.11 / defence 0.78, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 44% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 30%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 76%, Al-Ettifaq 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Al-Ettifaq winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.