Al Taawon 1-1 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al Kholood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Taawon host Al Kholood at Al Taawoun Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024 at 14:55 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Taawon — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's home record at Al Taawoun Club Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Al Taawoun Club Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Taawon are significantly better at Al Taawoun Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Kholood have recorded 1W 3D 4L from 8 outings — 0.75 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's away record: 1W 1D 2L from 4 road trips in Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
On current form, Al Taawon have the edge — a 0.75 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.75) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games).
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 38% versus Al Kholood 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Al Taawon 25% | Al Kholood 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.53 xG and Al Kholood 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.014 / defence 0.726 | Al Kholood attack 0.700 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.271. Al Taawon's defence rating of 0.726 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Al Taawon games / 8 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 59% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 16%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Al Kholood 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 20% | Al Kholood 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Al Taawoun Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 14:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 59% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 37% | xG Al Taawon 1.53 / Al Kholood 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 1.014 / def 0.726 | Al Kholood attack 0.700 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (59%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Al Kholood xG
37%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al Kholood kicked off at 14:55 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Al Taawon 1 - 1 Al Kholood.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al Taawoun Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Taawon vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 59% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Al Taawon and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Kholood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Taawon and Al Kholood in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 1.01x the league average against Al Kholood's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Kholood's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.89
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
2.17
0.65
Al Kholood xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.69
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
31%
3.25
3%
29.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 11.2 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.65 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al Kholood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 3W 2D 3L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Kholood's form line: 1W 3D 4L from 8 games, 0.75 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Taawon are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Kholood.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Al Taawon are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Al Kholood have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.38 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood in 62%.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Taawon's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 2.50 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al Kholood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al Kholood in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al Kholood runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al Kholood specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Taawon
1
Draws
1
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 2, Al Kholood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al Taawon 1-2 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al Kholood?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Kholood see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 25%, Al Kholood 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Al Taawon and 25% for Al Kholood.
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 50% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Al Taawon's recent games and 25% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Taawon and Al Kholood share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Taawon and Al Kholood finished level at 1-1 at Al Taawoun Club Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 1.53 xG and Al Kholood 0.65 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 1.01 / defence 0.73 against Al Kholood attack 0.70 / defence 1.00, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 59% | Draw 26% | Al Kholood 16%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 59%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 25%, Al Kholood 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Kholood's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.