Al Taawon 2-4 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Taawon at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al Taawon welcome Al-Ahli Jeddah to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Taawon have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taawon's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al Taawon are significantly better at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Al Taawon) versus 1.70 (Al-Ahli Jeddah). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Al Taawon, 2 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al Taawon trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Taawon 48% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 37% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 0.972 / defence 0.702 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.903 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.292. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.715 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al Taawon's defence rating of 0.702 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Al Taawon games / 46 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Taawon 37% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Al-Ahli Jeddah's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Taawon at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.76 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Al Taawon 30% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Taawon 37% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Al Taawon 0.94 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Al Taawon attack 0.972 / def 0.702 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.903 / def 0.715 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Al Taawon xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
34%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al Taawon 2 - 4 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al Taawon a 37% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (4 meetings): Al Taawon 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2W.
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al Taawon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Taawon's attack at 0.97x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al Taawon's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
37%
2.74
33%
3.00
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Al Taawon xG
Total xG
1.76
0.82
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 14.2 | 5.8 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Al Taawon and 0.82 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Al Taawon have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 21W 14D 11L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 25W 10D 11L from 46 games, 1.85 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Taawon on 1.67 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al Taawon have posted 1.91 PPG from 23 outings (13W 5D 5L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 10W 5D 8L from 23 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Al Taawon are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.80 scored and 0.96 conceded. Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking output running into Al Taawon's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Taawon
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al Taawon have gone 21W 14D 11L in their last 46 games (1.67 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 25W 10D 11L in their last 46 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Taawon at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al Taawon's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Taawon at home: 1.91 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Al Taawon or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Taawon have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Al Taawon's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Taawon
2
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Taawon have won 0, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Taawon 48%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Al Taawon) and 61% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Taawon home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Taawon play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Taawon's recent matches and 52% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Taawon vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Al Taawon's recent games and 61% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Taawon and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al Taawon have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Taawon.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Taawon 2-4 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Taawon 0.94 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.82 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al Taawon beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 0.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Taawon attack 0.97 / defence 0.70 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.90 / defence 0.71, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Taawon 37% | Draw 33% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 30%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Al-Ahli Jeddah win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Taawon 37%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Taawon's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Taawon 1.67 PPG, Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ahli Jeddah win broke the near-deadlock. Al Taawon (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.