Al Shabab 2-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Shabab at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al-Raed encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Al-Raed travel to Al-Shabab Club Stadium to take on Al Shabab in Pro League (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Shabab stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Al Shabab have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Al-Raed have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al Shabab carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Al Shabab have won 3, Al-Raed 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2023, ended Al Shabab 1–2 Al-Raed — a Al-Raed win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al Shabab in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

Al-Raed in-play tendencies (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 51% versus Al-Raed 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 58% | Al-Raed 66%). Note also that Al-Raed surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Al Shabab recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.91 xG and Al-Raed 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.245 / defence 0.995 | Al-Raed attack 1.082 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.414. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 59 games and Al-Raed's last 59.

Result probabilities: Al Shabab 46% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.15 | Draw 4.33 | Al-Raed 3.29. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.91 / 1.52) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.44 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 40% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 80% (last 10 away games).

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