Al-Ittihad FC 1-3 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Ittihad FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Shabab make the trip to King Abdullah Sports City to face Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Friday 26 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Al-Ittihad FC (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Ittihad FC's home record at King Abdullah Sports City: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Shabab have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Al Shabab's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Al-Ittihad FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Al Shabab (2.20 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Ittihad FC, 2 for Al Shabab and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Shabab winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al-Ittihad FC half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al Shabab half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 45% versus Al Shabab 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Al Shabab 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 xG and Al Shabab 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.159 / defence 0.965 | Al Shabab attack 0.742 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.414. Al Shabab's defence strength of 0.723 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Al-Ittihad FC games / 58 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 31%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Al Shabab 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al Shabab 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 26 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 / Al Shabab 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.159 / def 0.965 | Al Shabab attack 0.742 / def 0.723 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al Shabab xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 April 2024 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Al-Ittihad FC 1 - 3 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 39% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al Shabab 2W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Al Shabab (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.16) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Shabab's attack (0.74x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
39%
2.56
30%
3.30
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
2.19
1.01
Al Shabab xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
31%
3.25
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.01 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC come into this having played 58 games, going 37W 11D 10L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.57 PPG from 58 outings (26W 13D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Ittihad FC's home form reads 20W 4D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.60 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games; Al Shabab in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Current Season
Al Shabab
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 37W 11D 10L in their last 58 games (2.10 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 26W 13D 19L in their last 58 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al Shabab away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al Shabab — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Al-Ittihad FC
1
Draws
4
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, Al Shabab have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Al Shabab 3-2 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 41%, Al Shabab 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 59% (Al Shabab). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 59% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 59% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Shabab cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Ittihad FC 1-3 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 29, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 xG and Al Shabab 1.01 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al Shabab outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.16 / defence 0.96 against Al Shabab attack 0.74 / defence 0.72, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 39% | Draw 30% | Al Shabab 31%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al Shabab win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 60%, Al Shabab 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Shabab's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.57. Form was overturned, with Al Shabab winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.