Al Shabab 0-0 Al Okhdood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Shabab host Al Okhdood at Al-Shabab Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 17 April 2025 at 16:50 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Shabab — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Al Shabab have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Al Shabab have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al Shabab, 1 for Al Okhdood and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 54% versus Al Okhdood 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 56% | Al Okhdood 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 2.01 xG and Al Okhdood 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.428 / defence 0.872 | Al Okhdood attack 0.800 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.324. Al Shabab carry an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — their λ of 2.01 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 61 Al Shabab games / 61 Al Okhdood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 63% | Draw 21% | Al Okhdood 17%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Al Okhdood 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al Shabab (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Shabab are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Al Shabab 70% | Al Okhdood 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 17 Apr 2025, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 63% | Draw 21% | Al Okhdood 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Al Shabab 2.01 / Al Okhdood 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.428 / def 0.872 | Al Okhdood attack 0.800 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Al Okhdood xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood kicked off at 16:50 on Thursday 17 April 2025 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Al Shabab 0 - 0 Al Okhdood.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood part of?
Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 63% chance of winning, Al Okhdood a 17% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Al Shabab and Al Okhdood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Okhdood?
Record (3 meetings): Al Shabab 0W | Draws 2 | Al Okhdood 1W.
What form are Al Shabab and Al Okhdood in?
Al Shabab (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.43x the league average against Al Okhdood's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 2.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Okhdood's attack versus Al Shabab's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
63%
1.60
21%
4.79
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.93
0.92
Al Okhdood xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
13%
7.44
Win to Nil
25%
4.02
2%
44.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al Okhdood expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Al Shabab and 0.92 for Al Okhdood, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Shabab come into this having played 61 games, going 27W 12D 22L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Okhdood sit at 0.93 PPG from 61 outings (15W 12D 34L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al Shabab's home form reads 17W 3D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Okhdood have taken 0.93 points per game from 30 outings (7W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al Shabab are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Al Okhdood are on 0.98 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Blended
Al Okhdood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Shabab and Al Okhdood in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 27W 12D 22L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while Al Okhdood have gone 15W 12D 34L in their last 61 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al Okhdood away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.80 PPG; Al Okhdood away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al Okhdood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Al Okhdood in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al Shabab and Al Okhdood runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al Shabab's record when hosting Al Okhdood specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
4
Draws
1
Al Okhdood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al Okhdood?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Shabab have won 1, Al Okhdood have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al Okhdood last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al Shabab 2-0 Al Okhdood.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 60%, Al Okhdood 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Al Shabab) and 43% (Al Okhdood).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al Okhdood in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al Okhdood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Shabab play Al Okhdood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 43% of Al Okhdood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Shabab vs Al Okhdood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Al Shabab's recent games and 43% of Al Okhdood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al Okhdood tend to score early?
Al Shabab have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Al Okhdood in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al Shabab's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab and Al Okhdood finished level at 0-0 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 2.01 xG and Al Okhdood 0.92 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al Shabab fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Al Okhdood landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.43 / defence 0.87 against Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 0.98, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 63% | Draw 21% | Al Okhdood 17%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 56%, Al Okhdood 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Okhdood's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.