Al-Raed 2-1 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al-Raed at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Fateh encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Raed and Al-Fateh meet at Al Raid Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:05 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Raed's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Raed have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Raed's home record at Al Raid Club Stadium: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Al Raid Club Stadium this season.

Al-Fateh (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al-Fateh's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Raed's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Al-Raed 2W, Al-Fateh 4W, 0D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Fateh winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Al-Fateh half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Raed 54% and Al-Fateh 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 54% | Al-Fateh 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.49 xG and Al-Fateh 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.852 / defence 1.131 | Al-Fateh attack 0.740 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.339. Al-Fateh bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Al-Raed's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Al-Raed games / 41 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Raed 46% | Draw 26% | Al-Fateh 29%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Fateh 3.45. Al-Raed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Al-Fateh lead the H2H ledger, but Al-Raed carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Al-Raed as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 50% | Al-Fateh 70% BTTS from recent games.

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