Al-Raed 1-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Raed host Al-Ettifaq at Al Raid Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Raed stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Al Raid Club Stadium this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Ettifaq have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Ettifaq — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Raed register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ettifaq in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Al-Raed, 1 for Al-Ettifaq and 4 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2024, ended 1–0 with Al-Raed winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Al-Raed in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Ettifaq in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 54% versus Al-Ettifaq 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 55% | Al-Ettifaq 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 0.86 xG and Al-Ettifaq 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.682 / defence 1.248 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.217 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.350. Al-Raed's attack strength of 0.682 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Ettifaq have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 2.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Al-Raed games / 56 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 15% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 65%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Ettifaq 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ettifaq (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ettifaq at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Raed 60% | Al-Ettifaq 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Al Raid Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 15% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 50% | xG Al-Raed 0.86 / Al-Ettifaq 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.682 / def 1.248 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.217 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Al-Ettifaq (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Al-Ettifaq xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Raed 1 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Raid Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 15% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Ettifaq the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Raed 2W | Draws 4 | Al-Ettifaq 1W.
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Raed's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Raed's defence, projects 2.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
15%
6.79
20%
4.95
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
2.91
2.05
Al-Ettifaq xG
6.79
15%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
13%
7.77
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
2%
52.74
28%
3.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Al-Raed and 2.05 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 14W 12D 30L from 56 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ettifaq, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 19L across 56 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ettifaq by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Raed heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 7W 5D 16L from 28 games — 0.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ettifaq's away record stands at 12W 9D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ettifaq come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Raed are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.29 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 14W 12D 30L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 0.93 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Al-Raed's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
5
Draws
1
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Al-Raed 1-1 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Raed have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 50%, Al-Ettifaq 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Al-Raed) and 39% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 39%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 39% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Raed play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 43% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Raed vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Al-Raed's recent games and 39% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Raed have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Raed and Al-Ettifaq finished level at 1-1 at Al Raid Club Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 0.86 xG and Al-Ettifaq 2.05 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.68 / defence 1.25 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.22 / defence 0.83, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 15% | Draw 20% | Al-Ettifaq 65%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 55%, Al-Ettifaq 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.