Al-Raed 0-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al-Raed face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to King Abdullah Sport City Stadium to face Al-Raed in Pro League (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Thursday 23 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Al-Raed (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al-Raed's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Al-Raed against 1.70 for Al-Ahli Jeddah. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Al-Raed, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 9 Dec 2023, ended Al-Raed 0–0 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Raed — key trading statistics (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Al-Ahli Jeddah — key trading statistics (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Raed 53% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Raed 56% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Raed 1.37 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Raed attack 0.899 / defence 0.985 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.224 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.366. Al-Ahli Jeddah have an above-average attack rating of 1.224, which lifts their away xG to 1.65. Data: built from Al-Raed's last 62 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 32.
Result probabilities: Al-Raed 30% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 42%. Fair-value odds: Al-Raed 3.32 | Draw 3.62 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.65) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Raed's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Raed 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 33 | Venue: King Abdullah Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Raed 30% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Al-Raed 1.37 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Raed attack 0.899 / def 0.985 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.224 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Al-Raed xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah FAQs
What time does Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Thursday 23 May 2024 at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Raed 0 - 0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 33) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Raed a 30% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al-Raed's attack rating (0.90) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (1.22x) against Al-Raed's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from Al-Raed's last 62 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
30%
3.32
28%
3.62
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Al-Raed xG
Total xG
3.02
1.65
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
6%
17.24
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Al-Raed and 1.65 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Raed's recent record stands at 9W 8D 15L from 32 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 7L across 32 games — 1.91 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Raed heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Raed have managed 5W 3D 8L from their last 16 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record stands at 8W 3D 5L across their last 16 away games, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Raed are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 2.06 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Raed
Current Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
Al-Raed (Home) vs Al-Ahli Jeddah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Raed
Current Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Current Season
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Raed have gone 9W 8D 15L in their last 32 games (1.09 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 18W 7D 7L in their last 32 (1.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Raed at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Raed at home: 1.12 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Al-Raed or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Raed have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 11 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Raed have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Al-Raed
2
Draws
2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Raed have won 2, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2025: Al-Raed 0-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Raed 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al-Raed and 81% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 69% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 31%; Al-Raed have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Raed home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Raed vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Raed's games and 69% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Raed's matches and 81% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Al-Raed's recent matches and 88% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Al-Raed's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at King Abdullah Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, as Al-Raed and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 0-0 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Raed 1.37 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.65 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Al-Raed fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Al-Ahli Jeddah landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Raed attack 0.90 / defence 0.98 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.22 / defence 1.06, drawn from 62/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Raed 30% | Draw 28% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 42%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Raed 56%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Raed's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.