Al Wehda Club 0-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Wehda Club face Al-Raed.

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Full Analysis

King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium plays host to Al Wehda Club versus Al-Raed in Pro League (matchday 32). Kick-off: Thursday 16 May 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Al Wehda Club have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Al Wehda Club have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Raed (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Al-Raed away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Al Wehda Club's games and 70% of Al-Raed's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Al Wehda Club, 2 for Al-Raed and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Al Wehda Club 0–2 Al-Raed — a Al-Raed win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Al Wehda Club half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Wehda Club 51% versus Al-Raed 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Wehda Club 49% | Al-Raed 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Wehda Club 1.53 xG and Al-Raed 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Wehda Club attack 0.999 / defence 1.207 | Al-Raed attack 0.977 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.452 / away 1.406. Al Wehda Club's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al-Raed's projected output up. Data: built from Al Wehda Club's last 61 games and Al-Raed's last 61.

Result probabilities: Al Wehda Club 34% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 40%. Fair-value odds: Al Wehda Club 2.93 | Draw 3.81 | Al-Raed 2.53. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.66) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Raed at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Wehda Club's last 10 home games and Al-Raed's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Wehda Club 80% (last 10 home games) | Al-Raed 70% (last 10 away games).

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