Al-Qadisiyah FC 4-0 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 6 November 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 7W 3D 0L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Kholood (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Kholood's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Al Kholood's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al Kholood in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al Kholood and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 4–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 49% versus Al Kholood 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 49% | Al Kholood 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.55 xG and Al Kholood 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.998 / defence 0.770 | Al Kholood attack 0.764 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.495. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.770 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 41 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 21%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Al Kholood 4.76. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al Kholood 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Nov 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.55 / Al Kholood 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.998 / def 0.770 | Al Kholood attack 0.764 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Al Kholood xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 6 November 2025 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 4 - 0 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 53% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood?
Record (2 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 2W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.00x the league average against Al Kholood's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.76x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.74
21%
4.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.43
0.88
Al Kholood xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.83
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
4%
22.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.88 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 41 games, going 25W 7D 9L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 1.20 PPG from 41 outings (15W 4D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 15W 3D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 0.85 points per game from 20 outings (5W 2D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.32 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Kholood in 61%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 25W 7D 9L in their last 41 games (2.00 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 15W 4D 22L in their last 41 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.40 PPG; Al Kholood away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Kholood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al Kholood in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 4-0 on 6 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 4, Al Kholood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Al Kholood 1-4 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al Kholood 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 55% (Al Kholood).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Kholood in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 65% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 55% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Kholood 4-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.55 xG and Al Kholood 0.88 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Kholood landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.77 against Al Kholood attack 0.76 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 21%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%, Al Kholood 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Kholood's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.