Al-Qadisiyah FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 6 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 2.20 PPG versus Al-Ittihad FC's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 35% versus Al-Ittihad FC 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 48% | Al-Ittihad FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.19 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.911 / defence 0.730 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.213 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.332. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.213 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 57 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 20% | Al-Ittihad FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 6 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.19 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.911 / def 0.730 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.213 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Al-Ittihad FC xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 6 March 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Qadisiyah FC 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad FC 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against Al-Ittihad FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ittihad FC's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.59
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.37
1.18
Al-Ittihad FC xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
11%
8.95
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.18 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 23 games, going 16W 2D 5L for 2.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 2.48 PPG from 23 outings (18W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Qadisiyah FC on 2.17 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC on 2.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 9W 0D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 2.09 points per game from 11 outings (7W 2D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.43 scored and 0.96 conceded. Al-Ittihad FC's attacking output running into Al-Qadisiyah FC's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 74%.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 16W 2D 5L in their last 23 games (2.17 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 18W 3D 2L in their last 23 (2.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.45 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.09 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al-Ittihad FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 57% of their recent games, Al-Ittihad FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Ittihad FC specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Al-Qadisiyah FC
1
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 2, Al-Ittihad FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC 0-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 18%, Al-Ittihad FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Al-Qadisiyah FC) and 54% (Al-Ittihad FC).
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 64% of their matches; Al-Ittihad FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 64% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent games and 54% of Al-Ittihad FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.19 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.73 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 36%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%, Al-Ittihad FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.17 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.