Al Okhdood 1-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Okhdood face Al Taee.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Taee travel to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to take on Al Okhdood in Pro League (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Thursday 14 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Al Okhdood — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 0D 6L from their last 8 home games — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Al Taee have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Taee away from home: 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Okhdood 0.90 PPG, Al Taee 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Al Okhdood in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Taee in-play tendencies (last 16 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 38% versus Al Taee 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 44% | Al Taee 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.25 xG and Al Taee 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.676 / defence 1.061 | Al Taee attack 0.778 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.394. Al Okhdood's attack rating of 0.676 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Al Taee's attack rating of 0.778 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Data: built from Al Okhdood's last 16 games and Al Taee's last 46.
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 37% | Draw 30% | Al Taee 33%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.67 | Draw 3.36 | Al Taee 3.05. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Okhdood 38% (last 8 home games) | Al Taee 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, matchday 17 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 37% | Draw 30% | Al Taee 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Al Okhdood 1.25 / Al Taee 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.676 / def 1.061 | Al Taee attack 0.778 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Al Taee xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taee FAQs
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Taee kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Taee kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Thursday 14 December 2023 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Taee?
Al Okhdood 1 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Taee part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Taee is a Pro League fixture (matchday 17) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 37% chance of winning, Al Taee a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Taee will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taee's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al Okhdood's last 16 games and Al Taee's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.36
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.40
1.15
Al Taee xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
12%
8.45
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taee Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.15 for Al Taee, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Taee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 4W 1D 11L from 16 games, a 0.81 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Al Taee, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 9L across 16 games — 1.06 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.81 PPG, Al Taee on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 2W 0D 6L from their last 8 home games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taee's away record stands at 1W 1D 6L across their last 8 away games, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's recent record.
The Goals Picture
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 16 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
Al Okhdood (Home) vs Al Taee (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taee Form FAQs
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 4W 1D 11L in their last 16 games (0.81 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Taee away?
Al Okhdood's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.75 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 27 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
0
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taee H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Taee?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al Taee have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Taee last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 May 2024: Al Taee 0-2 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Taee?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 38%, Al Taee 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al Okhdood) and 38% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 50% of games; Al Taee in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Okhdood vs Al Taee Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Okhdood and Al Taee matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 38% of Al Taee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Okhdood and Al Taee matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 38% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Taee matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Al Okhdood's recent matches and 62% of Al Taee's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Okhdood edge out Al Taee 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al Taee 1-0 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.25 xG and Al Taee 1.15 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Taee landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.68 / defence 1.06 against Al Taee attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 37% | Draw 30% | Al Taee 33%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 44%, Al Taee 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taee's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.81 PPG, Al Taee 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taee (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.