Damac 3-0 Al Taee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Damac (68%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Damac face Al Taee.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Taee make the trip to Dhamak Club Stadium to face Damac in Pro League, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Thursday 21 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Damac's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac's home record at Dhamak Club Stadium: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taee (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Taee's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Damac's 2.30 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Al Taee's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Damac have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 5 meetings, with Al Taee managing just 1 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Al Taee winning.
The historical record gives Damac a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Damac — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Al Taee — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Damac 60% versus Al Taee 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Damac 53% | Al Taee 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Damac 2.36 xG and Al Taee 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Damac attack 1.338 / defence 0.969 | Al Taee attack 0.703 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.387. Damac carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 2.36 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 47 Damac games / 47 Al Taee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Damac 68% | Draw 19% | Al Taee 13%. Fair-value odds: Damac 1.47 | Draw 5.26 | Al Taee 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Damac (68%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Damac at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Damac 80% | Al Taee 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Damac vs Al Taee | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dhamak Club Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 21 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Damac 68% | Draw 19% | Al Taee 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Damac 2.36 / Al Taee 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Damac attack 1.338 / def 0.969 | Al Taee attack 0.703 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Damac (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.36
Damac xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Al Taee xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Damac vs Al Taee kick off?
Damac vs Al Taee kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 21 December 2023 at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Damac vs Al Taee?
Damac 3 - 0 Al Taee.
Where is Damac vs Al Taee being played?
The match is being played at Dhamak Club Stadium.
What competition is Damac vs Al Taee part of?
Damac vs Al Taee is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Damac vs Al Taee?
Our statistical model gives Damac a 68% chance of winning, Al Taee a 13% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Damac the favourite.
Will both teams score in Damac vs Al Taee?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Damac and Al Taee will score (BTTS).
Will Damac vs Al Taee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taee?
Record (5 meetings): Damac 4W | Draws 0 | Al Taee 1W.
What form are Damac and Al Taee in?
Damac (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al Taee (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Damac's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Al Taee's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.36. Flip it around — Al Taee's attack (0.70x) against Damac's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Damac Win
68%
1.46
19%
5.34
13%
7.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.36
Damac xG
Total xG
3.30
0.94
Al Taee xG
1.46
68%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
7.73
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
9%
10.59
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
1%
81.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Damac vs Al Taee?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Damac and Al Taee expected to score?
The model projects 2.36 expected goals for Damac and 0.94 for Al Taee, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Damac vs Al Taee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Damac have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 16W 15D 16L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taee's form line: 15W 6D 26L from 47 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Al Taee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Damac against 1.09 for Al Taee. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Damac have posted 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (9W 9D 5L).
On the road, Al Taee have gone 3W 4D 16L from 23 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Al Taee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Damac come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Damac are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Al Taee are on 1.30 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Damac
Blended
Al Taee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Damac and Al Taee in coming into this match?
Damac have gone 16W 15D 16L in their last 47 games (1.34 PPG), while Al Taee have gone 15W 6D 26L in their last 47 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Damac at home or Al Taee away?
Damac's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Damac at home: 1.57 PPG; Al Taee away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Damac won 3-0 on 21 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Damac have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Taee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Damac
0
Draws
1
Al Taee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Damac and Al Taee?
From 6 meetings on record, Damac have won 5, Al Taee have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Damac and Al Taee last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2023, when Damac 3-0 Al Taee.
Who has won more matches between Damac and Al Taee?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al Taee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Damac 65%, Al Taee 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Damac) and 52% (Al Taee).
On the defensive side: Al Taee in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Damac home games / Al Taee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Damac play Al Taee?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Damac's games and 48% of Al Taee's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Damac vs Al Taee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Damac's recent games and 52% of Al Taee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Damac and Al Taee tend to score early?
Damac have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al Taee in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Damac run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Al Taee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Taee 3-0 at Dhamak Club Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Damac 2.36 xG and Al Taee 0.94 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Al Taee landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Damac attack 1.34 / defence 0.97 against Al Taee attack 0.70 / defence 1.18, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Damac 68% | Draw 19% | Al Taee 13%, with Damac to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Damac 53%, Al Taee 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Damac's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Taee's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Damac 1.34 PPG, Al Taee 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Damac (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Al Taee (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.