Al Okhdood 0-1 Al Riyadh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al Riyadh at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium plays host to Al Okhdood versus Al Riyadh in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 16:20 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Okhdood have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 2W 2D 6L at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Riyadh (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Riyadh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Riyadh away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Al Riyadh arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al Riyadh in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Okhdood, 1 for Al Riyadh and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Al Riyadh winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al Riyadh goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 48% versus Al Riyadh 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 55% | Al Riyadh 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.30 xG and Al Riyadh 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.775 / defence 1.074 | Al Riyadh attack 0.966 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.277. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Al Okhdood games / 40 Al Riyadh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 36% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 37%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Al Riyadh 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Riyadh at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Riyadh if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 70% | Al Riyadh 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 36% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Al Okhdood 1.30 / Al Riyadh 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.775 / def 1.074 | Al Riyadh attack 0.966 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Al Riyadh (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Al Riyadh xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh kicked off at 16:20 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh?
Al Okhdood 0 - 1 Al Riyadh.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 36% chance of winning, Al Riyadh a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Riyadh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh?
Record (2 meetings): Al Okhdood 1W | Draws 0 | Al Riyadh 1W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Al Riyadh (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Okhdood's attack rating (0.78) and Al Riyadh's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (0.97x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
36%
2.74
26%
3.81
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.63
1.32
Al Riyadh xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
10%
10.31
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.32 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 10W 7D 23L from 40 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al Okhdood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Riyadh, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 17L across 40 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Riyadh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Al Okhdood against 1.12 for Al Riyadh. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 6W 2D 12L from 20 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Riyadh's away record stands at 5W 5D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Al Riyadh are on 1.08 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Riyadh in 60%.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Early Season
Al Riyadh
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 10W 7D 23L in their last 40 games (0.92 PPG), while Al Riyadh have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Riyadh away?
Al Okhdood's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Riyadh away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al Riyadh — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
4
Al Riyadh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al Riyadh have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al Riyadh 1-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh?
Al Riyadh have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al Riyadh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 50%, Al Riyadh 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Al Okhdood and 65% for Al Riyadh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Riyadh in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Riyadh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al Riyadh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Okhdood's games and 65% of Al Riyadh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al Riyadh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Al Okhdood's matches and 65% of Al Riyadh's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Riyadh tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al Riyadh in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al Okhdood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Riyadh beat Al Okhdood 0-1 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.30 xG and Al Riyadh 1.32 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.78 / defence 1.07 against Al Riyadh attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 36% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 37%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 55%, Al Riyadh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Riyadh's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.92 PPG, Al Riyadh 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Riyadh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.