Al-Fateh 1-1 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Fateh at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Kholood make the trip to Al Fateh Club Stadium to face Al-Fateh in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 October 2024 at 15:45 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Fateh's overall Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh Club Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al Kholood have collected 0.67 PPG across 6 Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 4L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al Kholood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al Kholood's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Al-Fateh against 0.67 for Al Kholood. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Fateh — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 33% versus Al Kholood 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 50% | Al Kholood 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.64 xG and Al Kholood 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.029 / defence 1.212 | Al Kholood attack 0.687 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.278. Data: 40 Al-Fateh games / 6 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 51% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 25%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | Al Kholood 4.00. Al-Fateh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Fateh as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Fateh if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fateh 80% | Al Kholood 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 51% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Al-Fateh 1.64 / Al Kholood 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.029 / def 1.212 | Al Kholood attack 0.687 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Al-Fateh (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Al Kholood xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Al-Fateh 1 - 1 Al Kholood.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 51% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Al-Fateh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al-Fateh's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.69x) against Al-Fateh's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Fateh Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.07
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.70
1.06
Al Kholood xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
5%
20.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.06 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al-Fateh's recent record stands at 1W 0D 5L from 6 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Kholood, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 4L across 6 games — 0.67 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Kholood, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.50 PPG for Al-Fateh against 0.67 for Al Kholood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al-Fateh have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.50 PPG overall — Al-Fateh are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Al Kholood's away record stands at 1W 0D 2L across 3 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Fateh are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.17 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al Kholood
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 1W 0D 5L in their last 6 games (0.50 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.00 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Kholood won 2-5 on 20 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Fateh have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al-Fateh
2
Draws
2
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 0, Al Kholood have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Al Kholood 0-0 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al Kholood?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Kholood see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 67%, Al Kholood 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Al-Fateh) and 33% (Al Kholood).
On the defensive side: Al-Fateh keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Kholood in 33%; Al Kholood in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al Kholood?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 33% of Al Kholood's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 33% of Al Kholood's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Fateh and Al Kholood share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Al-Fateh and Al Kholood drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.64 xG and Al Kholood 1.06 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.03 / defence 1.21 against Al Kholood attack 0.69 / defence 1.08, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 51% | Draw 25% | Al Kholood 25%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 50%, Al Kholood 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Al Kholood's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 0.50 PPG, Al Kholood 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.