Al-Nassr 1-1 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Al-Nassr face Al-Ahli Jeddah.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al Awal Park at King Saud University plays host to Al-Nassr versus Al-Ahli Jeddah in Pro League (matchday 3). Kick-off: Friday 13 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Al-Nassr's record over their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L (2.40 PPG). Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Al-Nassr at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al-Ahli Jeddah away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Nassr's 2.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Ahli Jeddah's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 away games) — Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Al-Nassr have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Al-Ahli Jeddah managing 0 and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 15 Mar 2024, ended Al-Nassr 1–0 Al-Ahli Jeddah — a Al-Nassr win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Al-Nassr and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Al-Nassr half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
Al-Ahli Jeddah half-time and goal-timing data (last 36 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 69% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Nassr 81% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.65 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.264 / defence 0.998 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.954 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.221. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack rating of 1.264 — their 1.65 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Al-Nassr's last 36 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 36. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 27%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 2.05 | Draw 4.10 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 3.72. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Nassr's last 10 home games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al-Nassr 90% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ahli Jeddah 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Al-Nassr 36 games, Al-Ahli Jeddah 36) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 3 | Venue: Al Awal Park at King Saud University • Kick-off: Friday 13 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Al-Nassr 1.65 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.264 / def 0.998 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.954 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah FAQs
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 13 September 2024 at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What was the final score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Nassr 1 - 1 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Al Awal Park at King Saud University.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 3) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 49% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al-Nassr's attack at 1.26x the league average against Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack (0.95x) against Al-Nassr's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Al-Nassr's last 36 games and Al-Ahli Jeddah's last 36, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
49%
2.05
24%
4.10
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.81
1.16
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
5%
19.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 1.16 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Al-Nassr have picked up 2.39 PPG on a 27W 5D 4L record — D-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form line: 20W 8D 8L from 36 games, 1.89 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Ahli Jeddah.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al-Nassr have posted 2.22 PPG from their last 18 home games (12W 4D 2L).
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 8W 4D 6L from their last 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.92 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.92 scored and 1.00 conceded. Al-Nassr's scoring rate against Al-Ahli Jeddah's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al-Nassr (Home) vs Al-Ahli Jeddah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 27W 5D 4L in their last 36 games (2.39 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 20W 8D 8L in their last 36 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.22 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 29 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Nassr have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Al-Nassr have won 5, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 April 2026: Al-Nassr 2-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 72% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Al-Nassr, 61% for Al-Ahli Jeddah — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Al-Nassr and 72% for Al-Ahli Jeddah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 61% and 61% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Nassr vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Al-Nassr's games and 61% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Al-Nassr's matches and 72% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 78% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Al Awal Park at King Saud University, Regular Season - 3, as Al-Nassr and Al-Ahli Jeddah drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.65 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.16 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.26 / defence 1.00 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.95 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 49% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 27%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 81%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Nassr's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.