Al-Fateh 1-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ettifaq at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 3 as Al-Fateh welcome Al-Ettifaq to Al Fateh Club Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:20 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Fateh have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fateh's home record at Al Fateh Club Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Al-Fateh are significantly better at Al Fateh Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Ettifaq — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Al-Ettifaq have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ettifaq's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Al-Ettifaq's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Al-Fateh's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Al-Fateh have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 6 past contests while Al-Ettifaq have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Al-Fateh winning.
The historical record gives Al-Fateh a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Fateh trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Al-Ettifaq trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fateh 75% versus Al-Ettifaq 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fateh 67% | Al-Ettifaq 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fateh 1.11 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fateh attack 1.022 / defence 0.895 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.026 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.218. Al-Ettifaq's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Al-Fateh games / 36 Al-Ettifaq games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 36%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fateh 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Ettifaq 2.78. The draw (29%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Al-Fateh dominate the H2H record, yet Al-Ettifaq are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 29% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Fateh 70% | Al-Ettifaq 30%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Al Fateh Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 16:20 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Fateh 1.11 / Al-Ettifaq 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fateh attack 1.022 / def 0.895 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.026 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Draw (29%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Al-Ettifaq xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 16:20 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh 1 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al Fateh Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fateh a 36% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Fateh 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 0W.
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al-Fateh (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fateh's attack at 1.02x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ettifaq's attack versus Al-Fateh's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ettifaq Win
36%
2.82
29%
3.46
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Al-Fateh xG
Total xG
2.23
1.12
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Al-Fateh and 1.12 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Al-Fateh have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 13W 9D 14L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fateh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Ettifaq's form line: 14W 12D 10L from 36 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al-Fateh on 1.33 PPG, Al-Ettifaq on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fateh have posted 1.44 PPG from 18 outings (7W 5D 6L).
On the road, Al-Ettifaq have gone 7W 5D 6L from 18 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fateh are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.25 scored and 0.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Ettifaq in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fateh
Early Season
Al-Ettifaq
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al-Fateh have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 games (1.33 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fateh at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Fateh's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fateh at home: 1.44 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Al-Fateh or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fateh have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 19 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Feb 2022, when Al-Fateh won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fateh's record when hosting Al-Ettifaq specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Al-Fateh
1
Draws
2
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fateh have won 7, Al-Ettifaq have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2026, when Al-Ettifaq 4-3 Al-Fateh.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Fateh have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Fateh 61%, Al-Ettifaq 28% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Al-Fateh) and 28% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 44%; Al-Fateh have failed to score in 28% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fateh home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fateh play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Al-Fateh's recent matches and 28% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fateh vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Al-Fateh's recent games and 28% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fateh and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al-Fateh have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Al-Ettifaq edge out Al-Fateh 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al-Fateh 1-2 at Al Fateh Club Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fateh 1.11 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.12 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fateh attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.03 / defence 0.77, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fateh 36% | Draw 29% | Al-Ettifaq 36%, with Al-Fateh to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fateh 67%, Al-Ettifaq 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fateh's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Fateh 1.33 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.