Al Kholood 2-1 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Kholood vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ar-Rass Stadium plays host to Al Kholood versus Al-Raed in Pro League, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 25 January 2025 at 13:50 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Kholood have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 games at Ar-Rass Stadium this term (0.71 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game.
Al-Raed (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Al-Raed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Raed's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al Kholood's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Raed half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Kholood 56% versus Al-Raed 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Kholood 50% | Al-Raed 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.47 xG and Al-Raed 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 0.866 / defence 1.215 | Al-Raed attack 0.972 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.434. Data: 16 Al Kholood games / 50 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 34% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 43%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Raed 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Kholood (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Raed if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Al Kholood 43% | Al-Raed 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 13:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 34% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Al Kholood 1.47 / Al-Raed 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 0.866 / def 1.215 | Al-Raed attack 0.972 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Al-Raed xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Raed kicked off at 13:50 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Raed?
Al Kholood 2 - 1 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 34% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Raed?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Raed in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Al Kholood's attack rating (0.87) and Al-Raed's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (0.97x) against Al Kholood's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
34%
2.98
23%
4.27
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.17
1.70
Al-Raed xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
6%
16.23
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Al Kholood and 1.70 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Raed?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Al Kholood have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 4D 8L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Raed's form line: 4W 2D 10L from 16 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al-Raed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Al Kholood against 0.88 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Al Kholood have posted 0.71 PPG from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 5L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Al Kholood are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.19 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Raed
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 4W 2D 10L in their last 16 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Raed's away record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 0.71 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Al Kholood
0
Draws
0
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Raed?
From 2 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 2, Al-Raed have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2025, when Al-Raed 1-2 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Raed?
Al Kholood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Kholood see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 43%, Al-Raed 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Al Kholood and 71% for Al-Raed. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Kholood have failed to score in 43% of games; Al-Raed in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Raed?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Al Kholood's recent matches and 43% of Al-Raed's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Al Kholood's matches and 71% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Kholood defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Kholood beat Al-Raed 2-1 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.47 xG and Al-Raed 1.70 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 0.87 / defence 1.22 against Al-Raed attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 34% | Draw 23% | Al-Raed 43%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al Kholood win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 50%, Al-Raed 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Raed's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Kholood 1.00 PPG, Al-Raed 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Kholood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Kholood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.