Al Kholood 1-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Kholood host Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Al-Hazem Club Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 31 December 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Kholood — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Kholood have posted 4W 0D 6L at Al-Hazem Club Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record: 7W 3D 0L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2025, ended 1–5 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al Kholood in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Kholood 59% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Kholood 59% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Kholood 1.45 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Kholood attack 1.060 / defence 1.142 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.519 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.430. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.519 — the away xG of 2.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Al Kholood games / 44 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Kholood 21% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%. Fair-value odds: Al Kholood 4.76 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 2.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Al Kholood 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Kholood 21% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 71% | xG Al Kholood 1.45 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.48 • Poisson strength factors: Al Kholood attack 1.060 / def 1.142 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.519 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Al Kholood xG
Expected Goals
2.48
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 31 December 2025 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al Kholood 1 - 3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Kholood a 21% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 60% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (2 meetings): Al Kholood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2W.
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Kholood's attack at 1.06x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al Kholood's defence, projects 2.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 1-3 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
21%
4.79
19%
5.13
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
1 – 1
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Al Kholood xG
Total xG
3.93
2.48
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
4.79
21%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.42
29%
BTTS No
3.40
Clean Sheet
8%
11.95
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
2%
57.22
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 2.8 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Al Kholood and 2.48 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Kholood come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 4D 25L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC sit at 2.30 PPG from 44 outings (31W 8D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Kholood's home form reads 10W 2D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Al Kholood are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken 2.10 points per game from 21 outings (13W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Kholood are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.77 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 64%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Kholood
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al Kholood have gone 15W 4D 25L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 31W 8D 5L in their last 44 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Kholood at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Kholood at home: 1.52 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Al Kholood or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Kholood have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 8 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Apr 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al Kholood's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Al Kholood
0
Draws
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Kholood have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6-0 Al Kholood.
Who has won more matches between Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Kholood 57%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al Kholood and 71% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Kholood home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Kholood play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Al Kholood's games and 67% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Kholood vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Kholood's matches and 71% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al Kholood and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al Kholood have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Kholood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Kholood 1-3 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Kholood 1.45 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.48 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Kholood attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.52 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Kholood 21% | Draw 19% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Kholood 59%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Kholood's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Kholood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.