Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al Khaleej Saihat face Al-Ittihad FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium plays host to Al Khaleej Saihat versus Al-Ittihad FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Wednesday 26 February 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Khaleej Saihat have posted 4W 2D 4L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Al-Ittihad FC are 1.60 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat in recent Pro League fixtures (2.50 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, Al-Ittihad FC have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Al Khaleej Saihat's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 1–4 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Ittihad FC have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Al-Ittihad FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Khaleej Saihat 54% and Al-Ittihad FC 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 49% | Al-Ittihad FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.26 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.947 / defence 0.987 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.249 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.363. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.249 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 55 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 29% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ittihad FC 2.13. Al-Ittihad FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Al-Ittihad FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Feb 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 29% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.26 / Al-Ittihad FC 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.947 / def 0.987 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.249 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Al-Ittihad FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 26 February 2025 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 29% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad FC a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
Record (5 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ittihad FC 4W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al Khaleej Saihat's attack rating (0.95) and Al-Ittihad FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad FC's attack (1.25x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
29%
3.47
24%
4.17
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.95
1.68
Al-Ittihad FC xG
3.47
29%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
5%
18.62
13%
7.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.68 for Al-Ittihad FC, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 55 games, going 17W 14D 24L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad FC sit at 1.98 PPG from 55 outings (34W 7D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Ittihad FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Al Khaleej Saihat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 7W 8D 12L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad FC have taken 1.74 points per game from 27 outings (14W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad FC are on 2.13 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC in 65%.
Last 55 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 17W 14D 24L in their last 55 games (1.18 PPG), while Al-Ittihad FC have gone 34W 7D 14L in their last 55 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ittihad FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.07 PPG; Al-Ittihad FC away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 0-3 on 3 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Al Khaleej Saihat
3
Draws
5
Al-Ittihad FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 1-0 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Khaleej Saihat see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 52%, Al-Ittihad FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 59% (Al-Ittihad FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC in 37%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ittihad FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ittihad FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 56% of Al-Ittihad FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ittihad FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.26 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.68 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 29% | Draw 24% | Al-Ittihad FC 47%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 49%, Al-Ittihad FC 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.