Al Khaleej Saihat 2-0 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Al Khaleej Saihat take on Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha meet at Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 14:50 UTC.
Current Form
Al Khaleej Saihat's overall Pro League record this term: 0W 6D 4L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record at Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Fayha have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.60 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 0.70 for Al-Fayha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Khaleej Saihat lead 3W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Al-Fayha winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Al-Fayha half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 62% versus Al-Fayha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al-Fayha 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.98 xG and Al-Fayha 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.774 / defence 1.034 | Al-Fayha attack 0.722 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.375. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 42 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 29% | Draw 39% | Al-Fayha 32%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 3.45 | Draw 2.56 | Al-Fayha 3.12. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Al Khaleej Saihat 60% | Al-Fayha 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Oct 2026, 14:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 29% | Draw 39% | Al-Fayha 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 44% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.98 / Al-Fayha 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.774 / def 1.034 | Al-Fayha attack 0.722 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Al-Fayha xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 14:50 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Al Khaleej Saihat 2 - 0 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 29% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 32% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha?
Record (8 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 3W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 3W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Al-Fayha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (0.72x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.42
39%
2.57
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.00
1.03
Al-Fayha xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
12%
8.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 13.8 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.03 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 10W 13D 19L from 42 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 11W 12D 19L across 42 games — 1.07 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.07 for Al-Fayha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 6W 5D 10L from 21 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 4W 4D 13L across 21 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.17 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 10W 13D 19L in their last 42 games (1.02 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 12D 19L in their last 42 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al Khaleej Saihat's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.10 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Khaleej Saihat won 0-3 on 28 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Al Khaleej Saihat
2
Draws
3
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha?
From 9 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 4, Al-Fayha have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 2-0 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha?
Al Khaleej Saihat have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 48%, Al-Fayha 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al Khaleej Saihat and 62% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 43% of games; Al-Fayha in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 52% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al Khaleej Saihat's matches and 62% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Khaleej Saihat beat Al-Fayha 2-0 at Prince Mohammed Bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 0.98 xG and Al-Fayha 1.03 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Khaleej Saihat beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.77 / defence 1.03 against Al-Fayha attack 0.72 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 29% | Draw 39% | Al-Fayha 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Al Khaleej Saihat win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 60%, Al-Fayha 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.02 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Khaleej Saihat win broke the near-deadlock. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.