Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Ettifaq make the trip to Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium to face Al Khaleej Saihat in Pro League, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 December 2024 at 12:55 UTC.
Form
Al Khaleej Saihat (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season.
Al-Ettifaq have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ettifaq, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ettifaq away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Al Khaleej Saihat. A 1.00 PPG lead over Al-Ettifaq (1.60 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Khaleej Saihat lead 1W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Al-Ettifaq winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Khaleej Saihat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 52% versus Al-Ettifaq 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 46% | Al-Ettifaq 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 1.34 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.125 / defence 0.941 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.892 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.283. Data: 46 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 46 Al-Ettifaq games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 30%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Ettifaq 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Khaleej Saihat as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Khaleej Saihat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Khaleej Saihat 40% | Al-Ettifaq 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 12:55 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 1.34 / Al-Ettifaq 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.125 / def 0.941 | Al-Ettifaq attack 0.892 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Al Khaleej Saihat (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Al-Ettifaq xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 12:55 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 2 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 43% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Khaleej Saihat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
Record (4 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Ettifaq 2W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Al-Ettifaq (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Khaleej Saihat's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Al-Ettifaq's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (0.89x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Khaleej Saihat Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.67
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.41
1.08
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.87
8%
12.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.08 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Khaleej Saihat come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 11D 20L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.30 PPG from 46 outings (15W 15D 16L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Al-Ettifaq is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Al Khaleej Saihat against 1.30 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Khaleej Saihat's home form reads 6W 7D 10L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.09 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.39 points per game from 23 outings (8W 8D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.13 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al-Ettifaq
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 games (1.22 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 15W 15D 16L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al-Ettifaq's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.09 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Khaleej Saihat have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ettifaq won 0-5 on 9 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Al Khaleej Saihat
1
Draws
5
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 2, Al-Ettifaq have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al Khaleej Saihat 0-5 Al-Ettifaq.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 52%, Al-Ettifaq 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 30% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al-Ettifaq in 39%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 35% of games; Al-Ettifaq in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al-Ettifaq?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent matches and 39% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Ettifaq usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 30% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al-Ettifaq tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Al-Ettifaq in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Khaleej Saihat 1-2 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 1.34 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.08 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 1.12 / defence 0.94 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Ettifaq 30%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 46%, Al-Ettifaq 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Khaleej Saihat 1.22 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.