Al-Ittihad FC 0-2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Abdullah Sports City plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC in Pro League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Friday 24 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Ittihad FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad FC's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's overall Pro League record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.50 vs 2.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 8 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 4–1 with Al-Ittihad FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Ittihad FC 69% and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Ittihad FC 62% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.124 / defence 0.983 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.577 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.488. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.577 — the away xG of 2.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 39 Al-Ittihad FC games / 39 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 29% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 3.45 | Draw 5.00 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.96. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 2.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 4.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 60% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Friday 24 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 29% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 74% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.31 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.124 / def 0.983 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.577 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.488 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
2.31
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 October 2025 at King Abdullah Sports City.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Ittihad FC 0 - 2 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 29% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 51% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 1W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Ittihad FC's attack at 1.12x the league average against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack (1.58x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 2.31.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.0%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
29%
3.43
20%
5.03
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
4.04
2.31
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
3.43
29%
Home win
5.03
20%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.86
Clean Sheet
10%
10.04
18%
5.65
Win to Nil
3%
34.47
9%
11.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 2.31 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 29W 6D 4L from 39 games, a 2.38 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 8D 5L across 39 games — 2.21 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.38 PPG for Al-Ittihad FC against 2.21 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 17W 1D 1L from 19 games — 2.74 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 11W 5D 3L across 19 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.82 scored and 1.21 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Ittihad FC have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 64%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Early Season
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 29W 6D 4L in their last 39 games (2.38 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 26W 8D 5L in their last 39 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.74 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 4-1 on 22 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Hilal Saudi FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al-Ittihad FC
2
Draws
7
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 1, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-1 Al-Ittihad FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Al-Ittihad FC, 68% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al-Ittihad FC and 74% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Al-Ittihad FC's games and 68% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 74% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al-Ittihad FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 0-2 at King Abdullah Sports City, Regular Season - 6, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.73 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.31 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.98 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.58 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 29% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 51%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 62%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al-Ittihad FC 2.38 PPG, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Hilal Saudi FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.68 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.