Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Al-Ahli Jeddah travel to Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium to take on Al-Hilal Saudi FC. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 March 2022, 16:50 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ahli Jeddah stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 0 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Hilal Saudi FC trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.66 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.307 / defence 1.033 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.705 / defence 1.088. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.111. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — their λ of 1.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 22 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 24 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 18%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 16:50 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 45% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.66 / Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.307 / def 1.033 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.705 / def 1.088 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah kicked off at 16:50 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4 - 2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 58% chance of winning, Al-Ahli Jeddah a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Record (1 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.31) and Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
58%
1.74
24%
4.11
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
2.47
0.81
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
3%
28.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 0.81 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Hilal Saudi FC come into this having played 22 games, going 13W 7D 2L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Ahli Jeddah sit at 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (6W 8D 8L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Ahli Jeddah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Al-Ahli Jeddah — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home form reads 7W 1D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Al-Ahli Jeddah are on 1.27 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 13W 7D 2L in their last 22 games (2.09 PPG), while Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 6W 8D 8L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Ahli Jeddah away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.20 PPG; Al-Ahli Jeddah away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Ahli Jeddah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Ahli Jeddah specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 4, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 0-0 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Al-Hilal Saudi FC) and 20% (Al-Ahli Jeddah).
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al-Ahli Jeddah in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Ahli Jeddah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent matches and 40% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Ahli Jeddah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's recent games and 20% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Ahli Jeddah tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Al-Ahli Jeddah in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Al-Ahli Jeddah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-2 at Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.66 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 0.81 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Ahli Jeddah outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.31 / defence 1.03 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% | Draw 24% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 18%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.