Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hazm face Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Al-Hilal Saudi FC travel to Al-Hazem Club Stadium to take on Al-Hazm. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 April 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Hazm — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm at Al-Hazem Club Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Al-Hazm are significantly better at Al-Hazem Club Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al-Hilal Saudi FC — 2.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against Al-Hazm's 0 victories.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hazm in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hazm 60% versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 58% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.92 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.961 / defence 1.106 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.697 / defence 0.683. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence strength of 0.683 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Hilal Saudi FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.697 — the away xG of 2.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Al-Hazm games / 43 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 9% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 11.11 | Draw 5.56 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (73%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 50% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Al-Hazem Club Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 9% | Draw 18% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 57% | xG Al-Hazm 0.92 / Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.69 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.961 / def 1.106 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.697 / def 0.683 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
2.69
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
57%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Sunday 18 April 2027 at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC being played?
The match is being played at Al-Hazem Club Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 9% chance of winning, Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 73% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Record (7 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 1 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 6W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hazm's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defensive record (0.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 2.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-3 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
9%
11.26
18%
5.63
73%
1.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 3
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
3.61
2.69
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
11.26
9%
Home win
5.63
18%
Draw
1.36
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
7%
14.70
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
1%
165.57
29%
3.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 3.2 |
| 1 | 2.5 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.9 |
| 2 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 2.69 for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Hazm's recent record stands at 13W 12D 18L from 43 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC, meanwhile, have gone 33W 9D 1L across 43 games — 2.51 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC by 1.32 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Hazm heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Hazm have managed 9W 4D 8L from 21 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record stands at 16W 5D 0L across 21 trips, a 2.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Al-Hilal Saudi FC are on 2.60 scored and 0.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 13W 12D 18L in their last 43 games (1.19 PPG), while Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 33W 9D 1L in their last 43 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al-Hilal Saudi FC away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's away record (2.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 1.48 PPG; Al-Hilal Saudi FC away: 2.52 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al-Hilal Saudi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al-Hilal Saudi FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
1
Draws
6
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
From 7 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1-0 Al-Hazm.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 67%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Al-Hazm and 62% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al-Hilal Saudi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al-Hilal Saudi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Al-Hazm's games and 52% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Al-Hazm's matches and 62% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's.
Do Al-Hazm and Al-Hilal Saudi FC tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Al-Hilal Saudi FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.